New Seat Details - Bedfordshire South West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bedfordshire South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,850	61.4%
LAB	16,503	30.8%
LIB	2,807	5.2%
Green	995	1.9%
OTH	376	0.7%
CON Majority	16,347	30.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Bedfordshire South West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Bedfordshire South West

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bedford	Elstow and Stewartby	3,090	Bedfordshire Mid	1,232	875	302	0	42	0	0	37	2,488
Bedford	Kempston Rural	3,080	Bedford	1,161	431	120	0	27	0	0	11	1,750
Bedford	Wilshamstead	3,476	Bedfordshire Mid	1,308	570	151	0	34	0	0	11	2,074
Bedford	Wootton	3,819	Bedfordshire Mid	1,457	737	310	0	91	0	0	14	2,609
Central Bedfordshire	Ampthill	9,699	Bedfordshire Mid	4,821	1,906	323	0	319	0	0	120	7,489
Central Bedfordshire	Arlesey	5,108	Bedfordshire Mid	2,613	1,284	185	0	76	0	0	59	4,217
Central Bedfordshire	Aspley and Woburn	3,681	Bedfordshire South West	2,069	622	91	0	116	0	0	16	2,914
Central Bedfordshire	Barton-le-Clay	3,974	Bedfordshire Mid	1,745	921	373	0	57	0	0	54	3,150
Central Bedfordshire	Cranfield and Marston Moretaine	8,947	Bedfordshire Mid	4,641	2,559	310	0	248	0	0	38	7,796
Central Bedfordshire	Flitwick	10,075	Bedfordshire Mid	4,909	2,643	391	0	359	0	0	44	8,346
Central Bedfordshire	Houghton Conquest and Haynes	2,198	Bedfordshire Mid	1,152	458	54	0	27	0	0	31	1,722
Central Bedfordshire	Northill	1,195	Bedfordshire North East	671	238	31	0	16	0	0	7	963
Central Bedfordshire	Shefford	7,211	Bedfordshire Mid	3,953	1,585	250	0	107	0	0	33	5,928
Central Bedfordshire	Silsoe and Shillington	4,074	Bedfordshire Mid	1,727	710	103	0	49	0	0	57	2,646
Central Bedfordshire	Toddington	7,440	Bedfordshire South West	3,440	1,693	716	0	110	0	0	114	6,073
Central Bedfordshire	Westoning, Flitton and Greenfield	3,724	Bedfordshire Mid	2,036	719	86	0	117	0	0	23	2,981
	Total	80,791		38,935	17,951	3,796	0	1,795	0	0	669	63,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Central Bedfordshire	Caddington	2,845	Luton South	1,152	399	38	0	36	0	0	13	1,638
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Central	3,332	Bedfordshire South West	1,434	843	75	0	27	0	0	14	2,393
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Icknield	5,731	Bedfordshire South West	2,644	1,372	126	0	42	0	0	23	4,207
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Manshead	3,575	Bedfordshire South West	1,462	1,225	77	0	29	0	0	33	2,826
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Northfields	6,528	Bedfordshire South West	2,761	1,920	137	0	119	0	0	37	4,974
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Watling	7,402	Bedfordshire South West	3,615	1,474	131	0	52	0	0	41	5,313
Central Bedfordshire	Eaton Bray	3,292	Bedfordshire South West	1,610	539	49	0	21	0	0	19	2,238
Central Bedfordshire	Heath and Reach	3,426	Bedfordshire South West	1,643	444	47	0	18	0	0	12	2,164
Central Bedfordshire	Houghton Hall	5,717	Luton North and Houghton Regis	2,017	1,830	322	0	95	0	0	9	4,273
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Buzzard North	10,881	Bedfordshire South West	4,608	2,480	417	0	166	0	0	20	7,691
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Buzzard South	9,303	Bedfordshire South West	3,810	1,943	375	0	129	0	0	34	6,291
Central Bedfordshire	Linslade	9,108	Bedfordshire South West	3,754	1,948	566	0	166	0	0	13	6,447
Central Bedfordshire	Parkside	3,220	Luton North and Houghton Regis	1,344	1,241	84	0	28	0	0	18	2,715
Central Bedfordshire	Tithe Farm	2,994	Luton North and Houghton Regis	1,104	1,135	186	0	22	0	0	14	2,461
	Total	77,354		32,958	18,793	2,630	0	950	0	0	300	55,631

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bedfordshire South West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Bedfordshire South West
Central Bedfordshire	Aspley and Woburn	3,867	Bedfordshire Mid	2,069	622	91	0	116	0	0	16	2,914
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Central	3,427	Bedfordshire South West	1,434	843	75	0	27	0	0	14	2,393
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Icknield	6,024	Bedfordshire South West	2,644	1,372	126	0	42	0	0	23	4,207
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Manshead	4,048	Bedfordshire South West	1,462	1,225	77	0	29	0	0	33	2,826
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Northfields	7,124	Bedfordshire South West	2,761	1,920	137	0	119	0	0	37	4,974
Central Bedfordshire	Dunstable-Watling	7,608	Bedfordshire South West	3,615	1,474	131	0	52	0	0	41	5,313
Central Bedfordshire	Eaton Bray	3,204	Bedfordshire South West	1,610	539	49	0	21	0	0	19	2,238
Central Bedfordshire	Heath and Reach	3,099	Bedfordshire South West	1,643	444	47	0	18	0	0	12	2,164
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Buzzard North	11,013	Bedfordshire South West	4,608	2,480	417	0	166	0	0	20	7,691
Central Bedfordshire	Leighton Buzzard South	9,010	Bedfordshire South West	3,810	1,943	375	0	129	0	0	34	6,291
Central Bedfordshire	Linslade	9,232	Bedfordshire South West	3,754	1,948	566	0	166	0	0	13	6,447
Central Bedfordshire	Toddington	8,059	Bedfordshire Mid	3,440	1,693	716	0	110	0	0	114	6,073
	Total	75,715		32,850	16,503	2,807	0	995	0	0	376	53,531

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bedfordshire South West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Andrew Selous (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,715
Turnout:	70.7%

Bedfordshire South West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bedfordshire South West: Overview

Introduction